2024 Hurricane Season Outlook: "Very Active" Forecast

Researchers predict a hyperactive 2024 hurricane season

On April 29, the Colorado State University Tropical Weather & Climate Research team released their forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. They are expecting this season to be one of the most active in history.

They are predicting 23 named tropical storms or hurricanes, meaning the storm has reached a development stage with sustained winds of at least 39 mph.

From those 23 storms, they predict eleven of them will reach the status of hurricane and five will develop to at least category 5 with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more.

When is hurricane season?

Official hurricane season for the Atlantic begins on June 1st and ends November 30th.

Why is the 2024 hurricane season expected to be so active?

There are several reasons that researchers and scientists expect the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to have so many named storms.

1. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures

Sea surface temperatures in tropical and subtropical Atlantic waters are higher than normal. Tropical cyclones need warm water to develop into storms and major hurricanes. Historically, the presence of above-normal temperature water is associated with an active hurricane season in the Atlantic basin.

2. Comparisons to historical data

Researchers have noted that air pressure and wind conditions measured this year have resembled conditions from overactive hurricane seasons of the past. When warm water, low air pressure, and high winds combine, they can create a self-enhancing feedback loop that can fuel more hurricanes, and more hurricanes that reach higher wind speeds.

3. Transition from El Niño to La Niña

Climate scientists expect climate conditions to soon shift from El Niño to La Niña.

El Niño and La Niña are opposing climate patterns related to the direction and intensity of winds, sea water temperatures, and air pressure over the Pacific Ocean.

El Niño: During El Niño, winds weaken and more warm water is pushed towards the American west coast.
La Niña: During La Niña, the reserve occurs. Winds grow in strength and warm water is pushed towards Asia.

Conditions during the La Niña pattern are just right for an Atlantic hurricane season with increased severity.

This occurs because the change in wind direction allows for a reduction in wind shear, or the change in wind speed with height in the atmosphere. Wind shear can disrupt the formation of strong hurricanes because hurricanes are able to grow stronger when winds at high altitudes are weaker.

How does the 2024 hurricane season forecast compare to the average?

Colorado State University researchers compared their forecast to the average data from hurricane seasons past. Here’s how their prediction stacks up:

Forecast Conditions	2024 Prediction	Average (1991-2020)
Named Storms	23	14.4
Hurricanes	11	7.2
Major Hurricanes	5	3.2

Source: https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

Where do they expect hurricanes to make landfall?

The April 2024 hurricane forecast from CSU also included their predictions for where hurricanes may make landfall.

Entire U.S. Coastline: They predict a probability of 62% that the U.S. coastline will be struck by a hurricane. The average probability between 1880-2020 is 43%.
U.S. East Coast: They predict a 34% that the east coast of the U.S. will be struck by a hurricane, compared the average of 21% from 1880-2020. This region includes the east coast of the country from Florida to Maine.
Gulf Coast: The team predicts a 42% that the Gulf coast will be hit by a hurricane, compared to the average of 27% from 1880-2020. This region includes Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida.

How the 2024 hurricane season may impact the Texas power grid

Hurricanes in the past, such as Katrina or Harvey, that have struck the United States have been particularly devastating to human life, animal life, residential and commercial property, and the electric grid.

When Hurricane Harvey devastated the Houston area in 2017, homes and businesses in the region were without power for days or weeks depending on the specific location. It’s estimated that there were over 300,000 homes without power at the peak of the disaster.

This forecast predicts an overactive hurricane season. If or when a hurricane makes landfall, major hurricanes are expected to inflict significant damage to infrastructure providing power to Texans. Here’s how you can prepare to protect your family, home, and pets from a potential hurricane.

Remember to familiarize yourself with the meaning of different hurricane alerts and warning systems so you can begin preparation in the right amount of time.

Switch to an electricity provider that cares

As the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season approaches, it is important to reconsider your choice of electricity provider and ensure that they are prepared to support you during a potential natural disaster.

When you choose BKV Energy, you can rest easy that you’re home’s electricity is in the hands of Texans who have not only experienced hurricanes firsthand, but are prepared to keep you updated, offer safety tips, and offer support during and after a storm.

If you’re looking for a provider that offers simple and affordable plans, enter your zip to explore rates in your area.

Written by Graham Lumley

Graham Lumley, Digital Marketing Manager at BKV Energy, leads digital and traditional marketing strategies, focusing on educating Texans about the state's deregulated energy market. With over 8 years of marketing experience, he creates content to help consumers understand and save on their energy bills, bringing a fresh and dynamic approach to the industry.