Will the 2026 Hurricane Season Be Bad?

Is the 2026 hurricane season going to be bad?

Climate scientists are expecting the 2026 Atlantic hurrican season to bring “below-normal” activity with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. This forecast is much lighter than last year’s.

On April 9th of 2026, the Colorado State University Tropical Weather & Climate Research team released its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

CSU researcheds predict13 named tropical storms or hurricanes. A named storm refers to on that has a reached a development stage with sustained winds of at least 39 miles per hour. Of those 13 storm, they predict 6 will reach hurricane status and 2 will reach major hurricane status. A major hurricane is at least category 3 with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more.

Category	Number of Storms Predicted in 2026
Named Storms	13
Hurricanes	6
Major Hurricanes	2

When does the 2026 hurricane season begin?

The 2026 hurricane season for the Atlantic begins on June 1st.

When does the 2026 hurricane season end?

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30th.

Why is the 2026 hurricane season expected to bring “below-normal” activity?

There are two main drivers highlighted by researchers and scientists in their prediction for 13 named storms during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season: a robust El Niño and mixed signals from sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic ocean.

1. Why does a robust El Niño contribute to a weaker hurricane season?

El Niño is a recurring climate pattern with warmer than normal water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. When water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific are warmer than normal, this tends to increase upper-level westerly winds (winds that blow from the west to the east) across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

This type of west-blowing wind can cause increased vertical wind shear (a change in wind speed or direction with a change in altitude). High wind shear is detrimental to the formation of hurricanes because it breaks up a potential storm’s vertical structure. When the vertical structure of the storm is disrupted, the storm can be torn apart before it can develop into a hurricane.

To put it simply, warmer waters in the Pacific Ocean generally lead to winds that are unfavorable for the formation of hurricanes.

2. How do mixed sea surface temperatures impact hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean?

Weather scientists report warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic, but cooler than normal temperatures in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic.

The warm waters in the western tropical Atlantic favor hurricane development because hurricanes need warm water to form. However, the cooler than normal seas in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic can indicate below-normal activity.

How does the 2026 hurricane season forecast compare to the average?

Colorado State University researchers compared their 2026 forecast to the average data from hurricane seasons past.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast is below the 1991-2020 average. The average has 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes, while the 2026 forecast has only 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.

Forecast Conditions	2026 Prediction	Average (1991-2020)
Named Storms	13	14.4
Hurricanes	6	7.2
Major Hurricanes	2	3.2

Source: https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

Where do scientists expect hurricanes in 2026 to make landfall?

The April 2026 hurricane forecast from CSU also included predictions for where hurricanes strike land.

Entire U.S. Coastline: They predict a probability of 32% that the U.S. coastline will be struck by a hurricane. The average probability between 1880-2020 is 43%.
U.S. East Coast: They predict a 15% chance that the east coast of the U.S. will be struck by a hurricane, compared to the average of 21% from 1880-2020. This region includes the east coast of the country from Florida to Maine.
Gulf Coast: The team predicts a 20% chance that the Gulf Coast will be hit by a hurricane, compared to the average of 27% from 1880-2020. This region includes Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida.

Region	Region Description	2026	2025	2024	1880-2020
Entire U.S. Coastline	Entire U.S. Coastline	32%	51%	62%	43%
U.S. East Coast	Florida to Main	15%	26%	34%	26%
Gulf Coast	Texas to Florida	20%	33%	42%	27%

Will Texas get hit by a hurricane in 2026?

Climate scientist predict a 20% chance that Gulf Coast of the United States, from Texas to Florida, will get hit by a hurricane in 2026. There is no guarantee that a hurricane will hit the state of Texas, but it is certainly possible.

Written by Graham Lumley

Graham Lumley, Growth Product Manager at BKV Energy, leads digital and traditional marketing strategies, focusing on educating Texans about the state's deregulated energy market. With over 10 years of marketing experience, he creates content to help consumers understand and save on their energy bills, bringing a fresh and dynamic approach to the industry.