How Will the 2026 Super El Niño Impact Texas?

What does El Niño mean for Texas?

The transition to a Super El Niño in 2026 is expected to impact Texas by bringing a hurricane season with below-average activity, and potential for a cooler, wetter winter.

Texas is a large state, which means the impact of the El Niño is expected to vary by region.

When is El Niño coming to Texas?

Scientists and weather experts expect El Niño to begin this summer, and to develop and remain in place for at least the rest of the year.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a Pacific ocean climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-normal water in the eastern Pacific by the west coast of the Americas.

The water temperatures must at least 0.5°C (0.9°F) warmer than average to be El Niño.

The presence of the warmer water tends to push the Pacific jet stream south, which leads to dryer and warmer weather in Canada and the northern U.S., but wetter than usual weather in the southern United States.

What is a Super El Niño?

A Super El Niño refers to an El Niño climate pattern with especially warm water brought to the eastern Pacific ocean.

A Super El Niño is defined by water temperatures that are at least 1.5°C warmer than average.

Why does El Niño lead to wetter winters in Texas?

In the winter, the North Pole gets much colder than the equator, the Pacific jet stream strengthens, and the winds can bring more precipitation to Texas and other areas of the southern United States.

Why does El Niño reduce hurricane activity?

Historically, El Niño causes milder Atlantic hurricane seasons because the Pacific jet stream has moved south.

The winds of the Pacific jet stream move across the United States from west to east, while hurricanes approach the United States from the east.

The winds of the Pacific jet stream moving in the opposite direction of a typical hurricane breaks up the storms before they can develop into a full-on tropical storm or hurricane.

Written by Graham Lumley

Graham Lumley, Growth Product Manager at BKV Energy, leads digital and traditional marketing strategies, focusing on educating Texans about the state's deregulated energy market. With over 10 years of marketing experience, he creates content to help consumers understand and save on their energy bills, bringing a fresh and dynamic approach to the industry.